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Polls Predict A Romney (or Obama) Victory…Might There Be A Motive For Skewing The Polls That Everyone Is Missing?

September 30, 2012

Polls Predict A Romney (or Obama) Victory…Might There Be A Motive For Skewing The Polls That Everyone Is Missing?

 

The results of various polls related to the 2012 Presidential Campaign seem to be published every day.  What has become increasingly evident is that many of these polls seem to be predicting outcomes based on certain assumptions which are questionable at best.  Numerous articles have been written pointing out how and why these assumptions are unfounded and how, as a consequence, they skew the results in favor of the Democratic Candidate (see links below).

 

Essentially these pollsters assume a much higher percentage of Democratic voters actually casting their ballots in 2012 than can be supported by either past or present data.  The fact that this model is completely fallacious is no longer just an “open secret”, but must instead be accepted as having been determined to be a political and polling fact.


 

 

Why would supporters of the Democratic Party, including the D. Party itself, continue to use a model which has been so obviously and emphatically discredited?  The most obvious answer and one that has been suggested elsewhere, is that by publishing data purportedly showing Obama/Biden pulling ahead the Democratic ticket benefits both by firing up its’ base and by negatively impacting the energy of the opposition.  While I agree these may be possible motives, I would suggest that the real impact of these polls may not be seen until after the election.

 

There are two more nefarious motives which have yet, to my knowledge, to be considered:

 

            1.  On the one hand, the results of these polls, importantly prior to the election, provide a body of evidence to which the Democratic Party may refer should the “turnout” be in line with the projections assumed in their model.

 

         2.  Should their candidate lose, under the assumption that the Republicans can keep voter fraud to a minimum, they can point to their polls and whip up their base suggesting that the election results were not in line with their model.

.

I suggest that there is no downside and much to be gained by pointing out these two possible motives prior to the election.

 

   1.   Obviously steps should be taken to minimize the effects of any attempt to illegally influence the vote totals by whatever means during and after the election process.

 

   2. The Republican Party should also have a body of evidence published prior to the election to which to refer should the need arise.

 

   3.  Pointing out these possible motives prior to the election might have some effect on the behavior of the opposition prior to, during, and after the election process.

 

   4.   In realizing this may be a strategy, debunking the results of these polls prior to the election might become more of a priority.

 Thank you for your interest.

 

Two among many….

 

 

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